So delicate is their ecology of power that, when things start to go truly bad, empires regularly unravel with unholy speed: just a year for Portugal, two years for the Soviet Union, eight years for France, 11 years for the Ottomans, 17 years for Great Britain, and, in all likelihood, 22 years for the United States, counting from the crucial year 2003.įuture historians are likely to identify the Bush administration's rash invasion of Iraq in that year as the start of America's downfall. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just 15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.ĭespite the aura of omnipotence most empires project, a look at their history should remind us that they are fragile organisms. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don't bet on it.
